Burnet Twitter Australia

Updated: October 17th, 2021 12:37 PM IST

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Hey folks, the Burnet modelling that informed the roadmap to reopening predicted case numbers would peak mid to late October. Today’s number is tough, especially for our frontline HCWs but also within the range that was known and expected. #covid19vic

Burnet Twitter

Breaking: Burnet modelling says Queensland visitor Incentivise is “one to watch” this spring 🏇

@AndrewKirbyGolf @JohnMilionis Dan threw Burnet under the bus. They gave him the models he paid for, until they became politically unacceptable. Seen it happen to many consultants at boardroom level over the years.

Updated Burnet Modelling (VIC) -17/10/21 🔢 -C19 Case Peak Forecast: 15-27/Oct -Projected Deaths: 1212 July-Dec/21 (not 2202 as per 18/Sep) -Overall: Roadmap will lead to another peak in infections & diagnoses. Hosp & ICU use may remain relatively flat rather than declining

“If at first you don’t succeed, grift, grift again. And again. And again.” The Burnet motto.

Andrews just admitted the Burnet modeling is too conservative Is everyone aware Sutton still works for the Burnet Institute?

Dan Andrews admitting the Burnet model was wrong and saying it’s good that they were wrong. 100% correct

A sober warning from @GMegalogenis 70% opening is high risk acc to both Doherty and Burnet models. Melbourne in real danger of a once-in-a-century setback

Victoria’s vaccination rate has almost halved death projections: Burnet modelling showed, @liammannix reports.

Why are we still doing the Burnet Institute thing? They’re about as accurate and honest as a Donald Trump stump speech.

Rob
Rob

@patrickdurkin @rwillingham Burnet haven’t been even remotely correct to date, so why worry now?

@AussieVal10 So the Burnet modelling was overly pessimistic (again) and the average punter was right to dismiss it. Who is anti-science again?

New Burnet Institute modelling shows that by December there shall come a pale rider on a white horse

Tweaks are possible to open up more quickly bc: 1) whilst Cases are tracking higher than Burnet forecast, Hospitalisations & ICU tracking LOWER than predicted for these higher daily cases 2) people spending LESS time in hospital than predicted 3) 12-15 yr old vax cover

Burnet modelling also said Sydney will peak at 3,000 or so. Might be time to stop paying attention to them.

Victoria are easing restrictions more liberally because the modelling they relied on from the Burnet Institute proved to be dramatically wrong…so they’ve engaged their services again to provide the future modelling, fuck me dead 😂

New Burnet Modelling shows easing restrictions likely to lead to second peak around Xmas of over 3500 cases #covid19vic

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Burnet has accounted for vaccination in their model. However, they are relying on this preprint from Canada to adjust the hospitalizations/ICU/deaths upward by a factor for delta. Seems that this factor accounts for nearly all the discrepancy. 4/

An attempt to compare @BurnetInstitute modeling from 27 August for NSW with observations. Note: Burnet models 11 LGAs + postcodes of concern in Penrith, I use 12 LGAs of concern for cases, and all NSW for hospitalizations (both are overestimates). 1/

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I hope the new Burnet modelling makes better assumptions on hospitalisation rates, in line with what has been happening in NSW

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@heidimur Oh FFS - Burnet modelling which has been massively off on 100% of occasions. Not good news.

@heidimur How much do we pay for the inaccurate modelling from Burnet that has been used to justify lockdown and curfew?

Vic media will be briefed shortly by the Burnet Institute on the updated modeling which accounts for actual hospitalisation, ICU and death rates. (Which have been lower/cases have aligned). Dan will update us on roadmap and 70% day after that. #covid19vic #spingst

@heidimur Let me guess? The Burnet institute has realised their modelling was overly pessimistic?

@s_deery @BuggaThe Political influenced modelling from Burnet Institute needs to be called out not given air time.

@heidimur @BuggaThe So the Burnet mob are just like Fiona Patten, sell their souls for $$$.

@heidimur Why Burnet? National roadmap (which we agreed to adhere to) uses Doherty modelling. Could you please ask @DanielAndrewsMP why this interest/obsession with Burnet?

@s_deery Has the Burnet modelling EVER been right? Consistent “updates” prove its a load of crap.

Ahead of fast tracked changes to Victoria’s roadmap expected today, Burnet Institute’s Prof Margaret Hellard will give an update around current Covid modelling. #springst

The problem I had with the Burnet modelling was the prediction of coming doom, perhaps intended to motivate further, harder #ZeroCovid measures. These results demonstrate a failure to estimate the full effect of vaccination as an epidemic response strategy.

Hey folks, the Burnet modelling that informed the roadmap to reopening predicted case numbers would peak mid to late October. Today’s number is tough, especially for our frontline HCWs but also within the range that was known and expected. #covid19vic

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