Studied this macro environment for many years. I am very confident that: - Stock market crash 50-80% - If #bitcoin cannot move with #gold it falls < 3k - QE & other fed tools are ineffective due to debt overhang - This depression will be worse than the 30s
Before describing today’s policy actions, let me briefly review recent economic developments. Economic activity has picked up from its depressed second-quarter level, when much of the economy was shut down to stem the spread of the virus. With the reopening of many businesses and factories, and fewer people withdrawing from social interactions, household spending looks to have recovered about three-quarters of its earlier decline. The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected, and forecasts from F.O.M.C. participants for economic growth this year have been revised up since our June summary of economic projections. Even so, overall activity remains well below its level before the pandemic, and the path ahead remains highly uncertain. With regard to interest rates, we now indicate that we expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current zero to one-quarter percent target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment, and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
Federal Reserve officials expect to leave interest rates near zero for years — through at least 2023 — and will tolerate periods of higher inflation as they try to revive the labor market and economy, based on their September policy statement and economic projections released Wednesday.
The announcement codifies that the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, and his colleagues plan to be extraordinarily patient as they try to cushion the economy in the months and years ahead.
The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee “expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time,” officials said in their statement.
“Effectively, we’re saying rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery,” Mr. Powell said at a news conference following the meeting.
Fed officials are also mulling when and how to update their asset purchase program — which involves buying large quantities of Treasury securities and government-backed bonds — and said Wednesday that they would maintain purchases “at least” at their current pace to “sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions.”
Mr. Powell noted that the economy had picked up, but the recovery in household spending probably reflected “substantial and timely” fiscal support, and said services that involved people gathering together — like entertainment and tourism — remained depressed.
The Fed updated its Summary of Economic Projections, a set of estimates for how the economy and interest rates will develop in coming years. Officials saw unemployment ending 2020 at a lower rate than it previously forecast: The median official expects the rate to average 7.6 percent over the final three months of the year, compared with 9.3 percent when the Fed released its last set of projections in June.